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Poster
in
Workshop: Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning: Fostering the Maturity of ML Applications for Climate Change

Calibrating Bayesian UNet++ for Sub-seasonal Forecasting

Büşra Asan · Abdullah Akgül · Alper Unal · Melih Kandemir · Gozde Unal


Abstract:

Seasonal forecasting is a crucial task when it comes to detecting the extreme heat and colds that occur due to climate change. Confidence in the predictions should be reliable since a small increase in the temperatures in a year has a big impact on the world. Calibration of the neural networks provides a way to ensure our confidence in the predictions. However, calibrating regression models is an under-researched topic, especially in forecasters. We calibrate a UNet++ based architecture, which was shown to outperform physics-based models in temperature anomalies. We show that with a slight trade-off between prediction error and calibration error, it is possible to get more reliable and sharper forecasts. We believe that calibration should be an important part of safety-critical machine learning applications such as weather forecasters.

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