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Workshop: Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning: Fostering the Maturity of ML Applications for Climate Change
Reconstructing the Breathless Ocean with Spatio-Temporal Graph Learning
Bin Lu · Ze Zhao · Luyu Han · Xiaoying Gan · Yuntao Zhou · Lei Zhou · Luoyi Fu · Xinbing Wang · Chenghu Zhou · Jing Zhang
The ocean is currently undergoing severe deoxygenation. Accurately reconstructing the breathless ocean is crucial for assessing and protecting marine ecosystem in response to climate change. Existing expert-dominated numerical simulations fail to catch up with the dynamic variation caused by global warming and human activities. Besides, due to the high-cost data collection, the historical observations are severely sparse, leading to big challenge for precise reconstruction. In this work, we propose OxyGenerator, the first spatio-temporal graph learning model, to reconstruct the global ocean deoxygenation from 1920 to 2023. Specifically, to address the heterogeneity across large temporal and spatial scales, we propose zoning-varying graph message-passing to capture the complex oceanographic correlations between missing values and sparse observations. Additionally, to further calibrate the uncertainty, we incorporate inductive bias from dissolved oxygen (DO) variations and chemical effects. Compared with in-situ DO observations, OxyGenerator significantly outperforms CMIP6 numerical simulations, reducing MAPE by 38.77%, demonstrating a promising potential to understand the ocean deoxygenation in data-driven manner.