Transformers Learn Latent Mixture Models In-Context via Mirror Descent

Sequence modelling requires determining which past tokens are causally relevant from the context and their importance: a process inherent to the attention layers in transformers, yet whose underlying learned mechanisms remain poorly understood. In this work, we formalize the task of estimating token importance as an in-context learning problem by introducing a novel framework based on Mixture of Transition Distributions, whereby a latent variable, whose distribution is parameterized by a set of unobserved mixture weights, determines the influence of past tokens on the next. To correctly predict the next token, transformers need to learn the mixture weights in-context. We demonstrate that transformers can implement Mirror Descent to learn the mixture weights from the context. To this end, we give an explicit construction of a three-layer transformer that exactly implements one step of Mirror Descent and prove that the resulting estimator is a first-order approximation of the Bayes-optimal predictor. Corroborating our construction and its learnability via gradient descent, we empirically show that transformers trained from scratch converge to this solution: attention maps match our construction, and deeper models’ performance aligns with multi-step Mirror Descent.