Beyond Entity Correlations: Disentangling Event Causal Puzzles in Temporal Knowledge Graphs

Existing Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) representation learning approaches focus on modeling entity correlations. However, since TKG datasets are constructed from events, which inherently contain heterogeneous causalities, focusing solely on entity or relation level correlations is inadequate for event prediction in TKGs. Although a TKG structural causal model can be established as a theoretical framework for event level causality disentangling, practical disentanglement is non-trivial due to the lack of explicit supervision signals. To this end, we propose a Heterogeneous Event causality Disentangling Representation learning Approach (HEDRA) for TKG reasoning, which is the first work that focuses on disentangling heterogeneous causalities at the event level in TKGs. Specifically, a counterfactual detector module is proposed to disentangle non-causality by leveraging event importance and distributional discrepancies of event representations. Moreover, an Instrumental Variable (IV)-guided disentangling module is proposed to disentangle spurious causality by constructing IVs, which can produce robust event representations against spurious causality through multi-view causality subgraphs. Finally, an evolutionary orthogonal module is proposed to separate dynamic causality from static causality for event prediction. Comprehensive experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that HEDRA achieves the state-of-the-art performance. The source code of HEDRA is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/HEDRA-8A2F.