Horseshoe Splatting: Handling Structural Sparsity for Uncertainty-Aware Gaussian-Splatting Radiance Field Rendering

We introduce Horseshoe Splatting, a Bayesian extension of 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) that jointly addresses structured sparsity in per-splat covariances and delivers calibrated uncertainty. While neural radiance fields achieve high-fidelity view synthesis and 3DGS attains real-time rendering with explicit anisotropic Gaussians, existing pipelines do not explicitly encode structural sparsity in the covariance—e.g., axis-wise variances or pairwise correlations—leaving noise-dominated components insufficiently regularized. Uncertainty is likewise essential for trustworthy and robust novel-view prediction, yet most 3DGS variants remain deterministic. We place a global-local Horseshoe prior on the covariance scales, whose spike-at-zero and heavy-tails adaptively shrink irrelevant directions while preserving the salient structure. We fit the model with a factorized variational inference scheme that mirrors the Horseshoe's inverse-Gamma augmentation, enabling Monte Carlo rendering and pixel-wise posterior uncertainty with minimal overhead. Theoretically, we establish posterior contraction rates for the scale parameters and transfer them to the rendered image via a local Lipschitz mapping, providing guarantees that estimation error and predictive uncertainty diminish with data. Empirically, Horseshoe Splatting produces high-quality uncertainty maps while matching state-of-the-art 3DGS visual fidelity and runtime, yielding a practical, uncertainty-aware renderer that is robust to structured sparsity in the radiance field. The code is anonymously available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/hs-25C5/README.md.