A General Spatio-Temporal Backbone with Scalable Contextual Pattern Bank for Urban Continual Forecasting

With the rapid growth of spatio-temporal data fueled by IoT deployments and urban infrastructure expansion, accurate and efficient continual forecasting has become a critical challenge. Most existing Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks rely on static graph structures and offline training, rendering them inadequate for real-world streaming scenarios characterized by node expansion and distribution shifts. Although Continual Spatio-Temporal Forecasting methods have been proposed to tackle these issues, they often adopt backbones with limited modeling capacity and lack effective mechanisms to balance stability and adaptability. To overcome these limitations, we propose STBP, a novel framework that integrates a general spatio-temporal backbone with a scalable contextual pattern bank. The backbone extracts stable representations in the frequency domain and captures dynamic spatial correlations through lightweight linear graph attention. To support continual adaptation and mitigate catastrophic forgetting, the contextual pattern bank is updated incrementally via parameter expansion, enabling the capture of evolving node-level heterogeneity and relevance. During incremental training, the backbone remains fixed to preserve general knowledge, while the pattern bank adapts to new scenarios and distributions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STBP outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both forecasting accuracy and scalability, validating its effectiveness for continual spatio-temporal forecasting.