Enhancing Image-Conditional Coverage in Segmentation: Adaptive Thresholding via Differentiable Miscoverage Loss

Current deep learning models for image segmentation often lack reliable uncertainty quantification, particularly at the image-specific level. While Conformal Risk Control (CRC) offers marginal statistical guarantees, achieving image-conditional coverage, which ensures prediction sets reliably capture ground truth for individual images, remains a significant challenge. This paper introduces a novel approach to address this gap by learning image-adaptive thresholds for conformal image segmentation. We first propose AT (Adaptive Thresholding), which frames threshold prediction as a supervised regression task. Building upon the insights from AT, we then introduce COAT (Conditional Optimization for Adaptive Thresholding), an innovative end-to-end differentiable framework. COAT directly optimizes image-conditional coverage by using a soft approximation of the True Positive Rate (TPR) as its loss function, enabling direct gradient-based learning of optimal image-specific thresholds. This novel differentiable miscoverage loss is key to enhancing conditional coverage. Our methods provide a robust pathway towards more trustworthy and interpretable uncertainty estimates in image segmentation, offering improved conditional guarantees crucial for safety-critical applications.