Despite the progress in the development of generative models, their usefulness in creating synthetic data that improve prediction performance of classifiers has been put into question. Besides heuristic principles such as ''synthetic data should be close to the real data distribution'', it is actually not clear which specific properties affect the generalization error. Our paper addresses this question through the lens of high-dimensional regression. Theoretically, we show that, for linear models, the covariance shift between the target distribution and the distribution of the synthetic data affects the generalization error but, surprisingly, the mean shift does not. Furthermore, in some regimes, we prove that matching the covariance of the target distribution is optimal. Remarkably, the theoretical insights for linear models carry over to deep neural networks and generative models. We empirically demonstrate that the covariance matching procedure (matching the covariance of the synthetic data with that of the data coming from the target distribution) performs well against several recent approaches for synthetic data selection, across various training paradigms, datasets and generative models used for augmentation.

Semantic associations such as the link between "bird" and "flew" are foundational for language modeling as they enable models to go beyond memorization and instead generalize and generate coherent text. Understanding how these associations are learned and represented in language models is essential for connecting deep learning with linguistic theory and developing a mechanistic foundation for large language models. In this work, we analyze how these associations emerge from natural language data in attention-based language models through the lens of training dynamics. By leveraging a leading-term approximation of the gradients, we develop closed-form expressions for the weights at early stages of training that explain how semantic associations first take shape. Through our analysis, we reveal that each set of weights of the transformer has closed-form expressions as simple compositions of three basis functions--bigram, token-interchangeability, and context mappings--reflecting the statistics in the text corpus and uncover how each component of the transformer captures the semantic association based on these compositions. Experiments on real-world LLMs demonstrate that our theoretical weight characterizations closely match the learned weights, and qualitative analyses further guide us on how our theorem shines light on interpreting the learned association in transformers.

A major problem in the study of large language models is to understand their inherent low-dimensional structure. We introduce an approach to study the low-dimensional structure of language models at a model-agnostic level: as sequential probabilistic models. We first empirically demonstrate that a wide range of modern language models exhibit low-rank structure: in particular, matrices built from the model's logits for varying sets of prompts and responses have low approximate rank. We then show that this low-rank structure can be leveraged for generation --- in particular, we can generate a response to a target prompt using a linear combination of the model's outputs on unrelated, or even nonsensical prompts. On the theoretical front, we observe that studying the approximate rank of language models in the sense discussed above yields a simple universal abstraction whose theoretical predictions parallel our experiments. We then analyze the representation power of the abstraction and give provable learning guarantees.

Long Context Language Models have drawn great attention in the past few years. There has been work discussing the impact of long context on Language Model performance: some find that long irrelevant context could harm performance, while some experimentally summarize loss reduction by relevant long context as Scaling Laws. This calls for a more thorough understanding of how long context impacts Language Modeling. In this work, we (1) propose to use `Intrinsic Entropy' for explaining the impact of context length on language modeling; and (2) conduct experiments on natural language and synthetic data, validating our proposed theoretical assumptions and deductions. Our theoretical framework can provide practical insights such as establishing that training dataset size dictates an optimal context length and bounds context length scaling for certain cases. We hope our work may inspire new long context Language Models, as well as future work studying the physics of Language Models.

While transformer-based language models have driven the AI revolution thus far, their computational complexity has spurred growing interest in viable alternatives, such as structured state space sequence models (SSMs) and Selective SSMs. Among these, Mamba (S6) and its variant Mamba-2 have shown remarkable inference speed-ups over transformers while achieving comparable or superior performance on complex language modeling tasks. However, despite these architectural innovations and empirical successes, the fundamental learning capabilities of Mamba remain poorly understood. In this paper, we address this gap by studying in-context learning (ICL) on Markov chains and uncovering an interesting phenomenon: even a single-layer Mamba efficiently learns the in-context Laplacian smoothing estimator, which is both Bayes and minimax optimal. To explain this, we theoretically characterize the representation capacity of Mamba and reveal the fundamental role of convolution in enabling it to represent the optimal Laplacian smoothing. These theoretical insights align strongly with empirical results and, to the best of our knowledge, represent the first formal connection between Mamba and optimal statistical estimators. Finally, we outline promising research directions inspired by these findings.

Language models demonstrate remarkable abilities when pre-trained on large text corpora and fine-tuned for specific tasks, but how and why pre-training shapes the success of the final model remains poorly understood. Notably, although pre-training success is often quantified by cross entropy loss, cross entropy can be poorly predictive of downstream performance. Instead, we provide a theoretical perspective on this relationship through the lens of coverage, which quantifies the probability mass the pre-trained model places on high-quality responses and which is necessary and sufficient for post-training and test-time scaling methods like Best-of-N to succeed. Our main results develop an understanding of the coverage principle, a phenomenon whereby next-token prediction implicitly optimizes toward a model with good coverage. In particular, we uncover a mechanism that explains the power of coverage in predicting downstream performance: coverage generalizes faster than cross entropy, avoiding spurious dependence on problem dependent parameters such as the sequence length. We also study practical algorithmic interventions with provable benefits for improving coverage, including (i) model/checkpoint selection procedures, (ii) gradient normalization schemes, and (iii) test-time decoding strategies.

We study the problem of length generalization (LG) in transformers: the ability of a model trained on shorter sequences to maintain performance when evaluated on much longer, previously unseen inputs. Prior work by Huang et al. (2024) established that transformers eventually achieve length generalization once the training sequence length exceeds some finite threshold, but left open the question of how large it must be. In this work, we provide the first quantitative bounds on the required training length for length generalization to occur. Motivated by previous empirical and theoretical work, we analyze LG in several distinct problem settings: $\ell_\infty$ error control vs. average error control over an input distribution, infinite-precision softmax attention vs. finite-precision attention (which reduces to an argmax) in the transformer, as well as for one- or two-layer transformers. In all scenarios, we prove that LG occurs when the internal behavior of the transformer on longer sequences can be ``simulated'' by its behavior on shorter sequences seen during training. Our bounds give qualitative estimates for the required length of training data required for a transformer to generalize, and we verify these insights empirically. These results sharpen our theoretical understanding of the mechanisms underlying extrapolation in transformers, and formalize the intuition that richer training data is required for generalization on more complex tasks.