Existing language model benchmarks provide contradictory model rankings, even for benchmarks that aim to capture similar skills. This dilemma of conflicting rankings hampers model selection, clouds model comparisons, and adds confusion to a growing ecosystem of competing models. In this paper, we take a different perspective on model comparison: instead of relying on out-of-the-box performance via direct evaluation, we compare model potential by providing each model with identical benchmark-specific fine-tuning before evaluation. We call this approach train-before-test. Our primary contribution is a comprehensive empirical evaluation of model potential across 24 benchmarks and 61 models. First, we demonstrate that model potential rankings obtained through train-before-test exhibit remarkable consistency across all benchmarks. Whereas traditional rankings demonstrate little external validity under direct evaluation, they enjoy a significant degree of external validity when applying train-before-test: model potential rankings transfer gracefully from one benchmark to another. Second, train-before-test restores the connection between perplexity and downstream task performance, lost under direct evaluation. Remarkably, even pre-finetuning perplexity of a base model predicts post-finetuning downstream performance, suggesting that ranking consistency reflects inherent model potential rather than fine-tuning artifacts. Finally, train-before-test reduces the model-score matrix to essentially rank one, indicating that model potential is dominated by one latent factor, uncovered by train-before-test. While direct evaluation remains useful for assessing deployment-ready performance, train-before-test provides a complementary lens for understanding achievable performance of models after adaptation.

The explosive growth of large language models (LLMs) has created a vast but opaque landscape: millions of models exist, yet their evolutionary relationships through fine-tuning, distillation, or adaptation are often undocumented or unclear, complicating LLM management. Existing methods are limited by task specificity, fixed model sets, or strict assumptions about tokenizers or architectures. Inspired by biological DNA, we address these limitations by mathematically defining LLM DNA as a low-dimensional, bi-Lipschitz representation of functional behavior. We prove that LLM DNA satisfies inheritance and genetic determinism and establish its existence. Building on this theory, we derive a general, scalable, training-free pipeline for DNA extraction. In experiments across 305 LLMs, DNA aligns with prior studies on limited subsets and achieves superior or competitive performance on various tasks. Beyond these tasks, DNA comparisons uncover previously undocumented relationships among LLMs. We further construct the evolutionary tree of LLMs using phylogenetic algorithms, which align with shifts from encoder-decoder to decoder-only architectures, reflect temporal progression, and reveal distinct evolutionary speeds across LLM families.

We present Hubble, a suite of fully open-source large language models (LLMs) for the scientific study of LLM memorization. Hubble models come in standard and perturbed variants: standard models are pretrained on a large English corpus, and perturbed models are trained in the same way but with controlled insertion of text (e.g., book passages, biographies, and test sets) designed to emulate key memorization risks. Our core release includes 8 models---standard and perturbed models with 1B or 8B parameters, pretrained on 100B or 500B tokens---establishing that memorization risks are determined by the frequency of sensitive data relative to size of the training corpus (i.e., a password appearing once in a smaller corpus is memorized better than the same password in a larger corpus). Our release also includes 6 perturbed models with text inserted at different pretraining phases, showing that sensitive data without continued exposure can be forgotten. These findings suggest two best practices for addressing memorization risks: to dilute sensitive data by increasing the size of the training corpus, and to order sensitive data to appear earlier in training. Beyond these general empirical findings, Hubble enables a broad range of memorization research; for example, analyzing the biographies reveals how readily different types of private information are memorized. We also demonstrate that the randomized insertions in Hubble make it an ideal testbed for membership inference and machine unlearning, and invite the community to further explore, benchmark, and build upon our work.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models dramatically expand model capacity and achieve remarkable performance without increasing per-token compute. However, can MoEs surpass dense architectures under strictly equal resource constraints — that is, when the total parameter count, training compute, and data budget are identical? This question remains under-explored despite its significant practical value and potential. In this paper, we propose a novel perspective and methodological framework to study this question thoroughly. First, we comprehensively investigate the architecture of MoEs and achieve an optimal model design that maximizes the performance. Based on this, we subsequently find that an MoE model with activation rate in an optimal region is able to outperform its dense counterpart under the same total parameter, training compute and data resource. More importantly, this optimal region remains consistent across different model sizes. Although additional amount of data turns out to be a trade-off for enhanced performance, we show that this can be resolved via reusing data. We validate our findings through extensive experiments, training nearly 200 language models at 2B scale and over 50 at 7B scale, cumulatively processing 50 trillion tokens. All code and models will be released publicly.