Causal Effect Estimation with Mixed Latent Confounders and Post-treatment Variables

Causal inference from observational data has attracted considerable attention among researchers. One main obstacle is the handling of confounders. As direct measurement of confounders may not be feasible, recent methods seek to address the confounding bias via proxy variables, i.e., covariates postulated to be conducive to the inference of latent confounders. However, the selected proxies may scramble both confounders and post-treatment variables in practice, which risks biasing the estimation by controlling for variables affected by the treatment. In this paper, we systematically investigate the bias due to latent post-treatment variables, i.e., latent post-treatment bias, in causal effect estimation. Specifically, we first derive the bias when selected proxies scramble both latent confounders and post-treatment variables, which we demonstrate can be arbitrarily bad. We then propose a Confounder-identifiable VAE (CiVAE) to address the bias. Based on a mild assumption that the prior of latent variables that generate the proxy belongs to a general exponential family with at least one invertible sufficient statistic in the factorized part, CiVAE individually identifies latent confounders and latent post-treatment variables up to bijective transformations. We then prove that with individual identification, the intractable disentanglement problem of latent confounders and post-treatment variables can be transformed into a tractable independence test problem despite arbitrary dependence may exist among them. Finally, we prove that the true causal effects can be unbiasedly estimated with transformed confounders inferred by CiVAE. Experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate significantly improved robustness of CiVAE.