Poster
Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Time-Series Prediction
Jonghyeok Lee · Chen Xu · Yao Xie
Hall 3 + Hall 2B #423
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Abstract
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Thu 24 Apr 7 p.m. PDT
— 9:30 p.m. PDT
Abstract:
Conformal prediction has been a popular distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (). Specifically, adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of on real time-series against state-of-the-art methods, where achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.
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