Skip to yearly menu bar Skip to main content


Poster

Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Time-Series Prediction

Jonghyeok Lee · Chen Xu · Yao Xie

Hall 3 + Hall 2B #423
[ ]
Thu 24 Apr 7 p.m. PDT — 9:30 p.m. PDT

Abstract: Conformal prediction has been a popular distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real time-series against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

Live content is unavailable. Log in and register to view live content