SimpleTM: A Simple Baseline for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

The versatility of large Transformer-based models has led to many efforts focused on adaptations to other modalities, including time-series data. For instance, one could start from a pre-trained checkpoint of a large language model and attach adapters to recast the new modality (e.g., time-series) as ``language''. Alternatively, one can use a suitably large Transformer-based model, and make some modifications for time-series data. These ideas offer good performance across available benchmarks. But temporal data are quite heterogeneous (e.g., wearable sensors, physiological measurements in healthcare), and unlike text/image corpus, much of it is not publicly available. So, these models need a fair bit of domain-specific fine-tuning to achieve good performance -- this is often expensive or difficult with limited resources. In this paper, we study and characterize the performance profile of a non-generalist approach: our SimpleTM model is specialized for multivariate time-series forecasting. By simple, we mean that the model is lightweight. It is restricted to tokenization based on textbook signal processing ideas (shown to be effective in vision) which are then allowed to attend/interact: via self-attention but also via ways that are a bit more general than dot-product attention, accomplished via basic geometric algebra operations. We show that even a single- or two-layer model gives results that are competitive with much bigger models, including large transformer-based architectures,on most benchmarks commonly reported in the literature.