Comprehensive evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) is an open research problem. Existing evaluations rely on deterministic point estimates generated via greedy decoding. However, we find that deterministic evaluations fail to capture the whole output distribution of a model, yielding inaccurate estimations of model capabilities. This is particularly problematic in critical contexts such as unlearning and alignment, where precise model evaluations are crucial. To remedy this, we introduce the first formal probabilistic evaluation framework for LLMs. Namely, we propose novel metrics with high probability guarantees concerning the output distribution of a model. Our metrics are application-independent and allow practitioners to make more reliable estimates about model capabilities before deployment. Our experimental analysis reveals that deterministic evaluations falsely indicate successful unlearning and alignment, whereas our probabilistic evaluations better capture model capabilities. We show how to overcome challenges associated with probabilistic outputs in a case study on unlearning by introducing (1) a novel loss based on entropy optimization, and (2) adaptive temperature scaling. We demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances unlearning in probabilistic settings on recent benchmarks. Overall, our proposed shift from point estimates to probabilistic evaluations of output distributions represents an important step toward comprehensive evaluations of LLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) generate text by sampling the next token from a probability distribution over the vocabulary at each decoding step. However, popular sampling methods like top-p (nucleus sampling) often struggle to balance quality and diversity, especially at higher temperatures, leading to incoherent or repetitive outputs. To address this challenge, we propose min-p sampling, a dynamic truncation method that adjusts the sampling threshold based on the model's confidence by scaling according to the top token's probability. We conduct extensive experiments on benchmarks including GPQA, GSM8K, and AlpacaEval Creative Writing, demonstrating that min-p sampling improves both the quality and diversity of generated text, particularly at high temperatures. Moreover, human evaluations reveal a clear preference for min-p sampling in terms of both text quality and diversity. Min-p sampling has been adopted by leading open-source LLM implementations including Hugging Face, VLLM and many others, highlighting its practical utility and potential impact.

Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large language models (LLMs) are insufficient for accurate estimations, but they can generate relevant factors that may affect the probabilities, produce coarse-grained probabilities when the information is more complete, and help determine which factors are relevant to specific downstream contexts. In this paper, we make use of these capabilities of LLMs to provide a significantly more accurate probabilistic estimation. We propose BIRD, a novel probabilistic inference framework that aligns a Bayesian network with LLM abductions and then estimates more accurate probabilities in a deduction step. We show BIRD provides reliable probability estimations that are 30% better than those provided directly by LLM baselines. These estimates further contribute to better and more trustworthy decision making.

Catastrophic forgetting (CF) poses a significant challenge in machine learning, where a model forgets previously learned information upon learning new tasks. Despite the advanced capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), they continue to face challenges with CF during continual learning. The majority of existing research focuses on analyzing forgetting patterns through a singular training sequence, thereby overlooking the intricate effects that diverse tasks have on model behavior.Our study explores CF across various settings, discovering that model forgetting is influenced by both the specific training tasks and the models themselves. To this end, we interpret forgetting by examining the function vector (FV), a compact representation of functions in LLMs, offering a model-dependent indicator for the occurrence of CF. Through theoretical and empirical analyses, we demonstrated that CF in LLMs primarily stems from biases in function activation rather than the overwriting of task processing functions.Leveraging these insights, we propose a novel function vector guided training methodology, incorporating a regularization technique to stabilize the FV and mitigate forgetting. Empirical tests on four benchmarks confirm the effectiveness of our proposed training method, substantiating our theoretical framework concerning CF and model function dynamics.

We study a fundamental problem in the evaluation of large language models that we call training on the test task. Unlike wrongful practices like training on the test data, leakage, or data contamination, training on the test task is not a malpractice. Rather, the term describes a growing set of techniques to include task-relevant data in the pretraining stage of a language model. We demonstrate that training on the test task confounds both relative model evaluations and claims about emergent capabilities. We argue that the seeming superiority of one model family over another may be explained by a different degree of training on the test task. To this end, we propose an effective method to adjust for the effect of training on the test task on benchmark evaluations. Put simply, to fine-tune each model under comparison on the same task-relevant data before evaluation. Lastly, we show that instances of emergent behavior disappear gradually as models train on the test task. Our work promotes a new perspective on the evaluation of large language models with broad implications for benchmarking and the study of emergent capabilities.

Large language models (LLMs), such as GPT-4, have shown remarkable performance in natural language processing (NLP) tasks, including challenging mathematical reasoning. However, most existing open-source models are only pre-trained on large-scale internet data and without math-related optimization. In this paper, we present WizardMath, which enhances the mathematical reasoning abilities of LLMs, by applying our proposed Reinforcement Learning from Evol-Instruct Feedback (RLEIF) method to the domain of math. Through extensive experiments on two mathematical reasoning benchmarks, namely GSM8k and MATH, we reveal the extraordinary capabilities of our model. Remarkably, WizardMath-Mistral 7B surpasses all other open-source LLMs by a substantial margin. Furthermore, WizardMath 70B even outperforms ChatGPT-3.5, Claude Instant, Gemini Pro and Mistral Medium. Additionally, our preliminary exploration highlights the pivotal role of instruction evolution and process supervision in achieving exceptional math performance.